Who will turn to the next limit?

At 9:00 pm on June 30th, the Guangzhou Municipal Government held a press conference. The vice chairman of the Guangzhou Municipal CPPCC and the chairman of the Municipal Communications Committee Weiwei Xiong reported on the "Regulations on improving the urban traffic and the trial and control of the total amount of small and medium-sized passenger cars" and "On the trial of small and medium-sized cities in Guangzhou. The relevant content of the notice of the regulation and management of the total amount of passenger cars (one year trial).

It is reported that during the one-year trial period, the city’s medium and small passenger cars have an increase quota of 120,000, and are configured according to 10,000 per month. In order to complete the connection work, Guangzhou will suspend the registration of licenses from July 1 to July 31.

Flat ground thunder is helpless?

The auto market is now struggling, and a paper restriction has caused all parties to be caught off guard. But after a period of turmoil, calm down and ponder, but can understand the pressure and crisis behind the government's introduction of restrictions.

It is reported that at present, the actual population of Guangzhou is over 16 million, and it is facing the severe situation of rapid growth of motor vehicles. As of May this year, the number of motor vehicles in the city was 2.405 million, including 1.674 million medium and small passenger vehicles, which was 2.5 times that of five years ago, with an average annual growth rate of 19.0%. At the same time, due to restrictions on land resources, funds, and other conditions, the average annual growth rate of urban road mileage in the past five years is about 2%, the ratio of registered berths to car ownership is 1..3.3, and the contradiction between traffic supply and demand continues to expand. From May to May this year, the average speed of the evening peaks of the first-class roads in the main downtown area dropped by 9.6% year-on-year, and the average speed of the whole network at the late peaks approached the international congestion warning line of 20 km/hr, with an average speed of less than 20 km/h. The main roads accounted for 27%, mainly distributed in the old city, the core area of ​​the Tianhe River, and the major urban access routes. According to the current trend of change, the average speed of the whole network during the late peak period of the central city in 2013 is expected to be lower than 20 km/h.

In terms of environment, according to relevant data, at present, the motor vehicle in Guangzhou has become one of the major sources of PM2.5, and the proportion of motor vehicle emissions from PM2.5 to the total amount of the atmosphere in the central city is as high as 38%.

Who is next?

In fact, restrictions on the purchase of Chinese consumers have long been nothing new.

In 1994, to control the number of private cars and ease traffic congestion, Shanghai began to implement a license auction policy.

In December 2010, Beijing stipulated that, in order to control traffic congestion in Beijing, it must purchase cars in limited quantities from January 1, 2011, and use license plates to obtain license plates. The total amount is 240,000 vehicles per year and 20,000 vehicles per month.

Nowadays, Guangzhou has also joined in the “restricted purchasing” policy, and it is tentatively planned for 10,000 units per month for a year, that is, 120,000 vehicles a year.

In the process of stylized development in China, the cities that are also facing severe road congestion are far more than the three cities of Beishangguang. There are 23 cities with more than one million motor vehicles, including Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Guangzhou. There are more than 2 million motor vehicles in seven cities including Hangzhou and Tianjin. Therefore, who is the next city to limit purchases has become a hot topic of social discussion. According to an online survey, over 60% of online users believe that Shenzhen is the most likely, and its proportion is much higher than that of Hangzhou and Chengdu.

This is certainly not groundless, Shenzhen road pressure is equally obvious to all. On February 27 this year, the number of cars in Shenzhen exceeded 2 million units, the density of road vehicles exceeded 300 vehicles/km, and the vehicle density ranked first in the country. In order to ease congestion, Shenzhen has again started green travel and voluntary suspension of operations on March 4 this year. The general public is urged to participate in the voluntary suspension. Despite data, it has accumulated more than 160,000 car owners to participate in the suspension. However, this voluntary suspension of movement is more symbolic, and more measures are needed to cure congestion. Regarding whether it is restricted or not, Shenzhen’s relevant department’s response is “not for the time being”.