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ACT Research has recently published its decarbonization forecast, *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*, which outlines the expected progress in zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as alternative solutions for reducing emissions. The report highlights how these technologies are shaping the future of the commercial vehicle industry.
Ann Rundle, ACT’s Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy, emphasized that BEVs are currently one of the most viable options for meeting decarbonization goals across various vehicle applications and gross vehicle weight (GVW) segments. She noted that while FCEVs and NG trucks will continue to play a role, their adoption is expected to be limited to specific, niche markets with much lower growth rates compared to BEVs.
The report also predicts a substantial rise in Class 8 tractor sales by 2026, driven by the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. However, Rundle pointed out that BEV adoption will remain modest in the near term due to supply-side challenges like infrastructure limitations. This is expected to change significantly by 2027 as the market matures.
Lydia Vieth, an electrification analyst at ACT, added that medium-duty (MD) applications are currently the best fit for BEVs, but California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is accelerating adoption in Class 8 tractors. Beyond 2030, cost efficiency—particularly total cost of ownership (TCO)—is expected to become the main driver for heavy-duty BEV adoption.
FCEV truck volumes, on the other hand, are projected to stay low through 2029, primarily due to higher costs and limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure. These factors restrict FCEV use to fleets with access to H2 stations.
Rundle also mentioned that NG truck sales are expected to remain stable in the short term, regardless of overall Class 8 volume trends.
ACT Research offers two key forecasting tools: the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the enhanced *OUTLOOK Plus*. These reports provide comprehensive insights into the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, covering Classes 4–8 vehicles and commercial trailers. They help industry players plan, budget, and develop go-to-market strategies by analyzing demand drivers such as regulations, consumer behavior, and current market activity.
The reports include forecasts for unit sales, powertrain splits (diesel, BEV, FCEV, NG), and detailed market analysis, including macroeconomic trends, freight performance, used equipment valuation, and regulatory impacts.
ACT Research is a leading provider of data, analysis, and forecasts for the commercial vehicle and bus industries in North America and China. Their insights are widely used by major manufacturers, suppliers, and financial institutions. With a strong reputation in economic forecasting, ACT contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is part of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Their team has received numerous awards, including recognition from the National Association for Business Economics and the Chicago Federal Reserve. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.